Saturday, February 13, 2016

Algorithms and a HUGE boost to seeing the trends... It's basically feeling like free money now..


Watched Tim G's End of the month assessment of his personal trades.. Taught me how to setup parameters/template on how i can track/reassess my monthly progress.. VERY VERY Important lesson.

So I've taken Tim's Trading style and mixed it with Tim G's as well using RSI from Connor's style. I just started learning more studies/algorithms and it almost seems like free money now since i can sense the stocks trend and possible trend changes exponentially using the algorithms.

As of now, i'll be swing trading for a good bit since i'm under the PDT rule. But once i break out of the PDT, ill be mostly focusing on day trading as it'll be alot less risk on penny stocks. Once i learn Superman's/Martin Shkreli's trading style + learn how to read SEC filings and properly assess a company's value like a CPA.. I'll go heavy on swing trading i'll have more information to utilize to more accurately assess the risk of holding overnight..

WOW !!!!!!!

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    Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

The MACD-Histogram is an indicator of an indicator. In fact, MACD is also an indicator of an indicator. This means that the MACD-Histogram is four steps removed from the price of the underlying security. In other words, it is the fourth derivative of price.
  • First derivative: 12-day EMA and 26-day EMA
  • Second derivative: MACD (12-day EMA less the 26-day EMA)
  • Third derivative: MACD signal line (9-day EMA of MACD)
  • Fourth derivative: MACD-Histogram (MACD less MACD signal line)

The base for this indicator is the security's price. It takes four steps to get from the actual price to the MACD-Histogram. Talk about massaging the data. While not necessarily a bad thing, chartists should keep this in mind when analyzing the MACD-Histogram. It is an indicator of an indicator. Therefore, it is designed to anticipate signals in MACD, which in turn is designed to identify changes in the price momentum of the underlying security.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

A type of moving average that is similar to a simple moving average, except that more weight is given to the latest data. The exponential moving average is also known as "exponentially weighted moving average".

This type of moving average reacts faster to recent price changes than a simple moving average. The 12- and 26-day EMAs are the most popular short-term averages, and they are used to create indicators like the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the percentage price oscillator (PPO). In general, the 50- and 200-day EMAs are used as signals of long-term trends.
The EMA for a series Y may be calculated recursively:

for

Where:
  • The coefficient α represents the degree of weighting decrease, a constant smoothing factor between 0 and 1. A higher α discounts older observations faster.
  • Yt is the value at a time period t.
  • St is the value of the EMA at any time period t.
S1 is undefined. S1 may be initialized in a number of different ways, most commonly by setting S1 to Y1, though other techniques exist, such as setting S1 to an average of the first 4 or 5 observations. The importance of the S1 initialisations effect on the resultant moving average depends on α; smaller α values make the choice of S1 relatively more important than larger α values, since a higher α discounts older observations faster.

Volume-Weighted-Average (VWAP)

The VWAP calculation is performed by the charting software and displays an overlay on the chart representing the calculations. This display takes the form of a line, similar to other moving averages. How that line is calculated is as follows:
Choose your time frame (tick chart, 1 min, 5 min, etc.)

  • Calculate the typical price for the first period (and all periods in the day following). Typical price is attained by taking adding the high, low and close, and dividing by three: (H+L+C)/3
  • Multiply this typical price by the volume for that period. This will give us a value called TP*V.
  • Keep a running total of the TP*V values, called cumulative TPV. This is attained by continually adding the most recent TPV to the prior values (except for the first period, since there will be no prior value). This figure should always be getting larger as the day progresses.
  • Keep a running total of cumulative volume. Do this by continually adding the most recent volume to the prior volume. This number should only get larger as the day progresses.
  • Calculate VWAP with your information: cumulative TPV/cumulative volume. This will provide a volume weighted average price for each period and will provide the data to create the flowing line which overlays the price data on the chart.

where:
is Volume Weighted Average Price;
is price of trade j;
is quantity of trade j;
j is each individual trade that takes place over the defined period of time, excluding cross trades and basket cross trades.


A trading benchmark used especially in pension plans. VWAP is calculated by adding up the dollars traded for every transaction (price multiplied by number of shares traded) and then dividing by the total shares traded for the day.

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)


Relative Strength Index (RSI)

For each trading period an upward change U or downward change D is calculated. Up periods are characterized by the close being higher than the previous close:

Conversely, a down period is characterized by the close being lower than the previous period's close (note that D is nonetheless a positive number),

If the last close is the same as the previous, both U and D are zero. The average U and D are calculated using an n-period smoothed or modified moving average (SMMA or MMA) which is a exponentially smoothed Moving Average with α = 1/period. Some commercial packages, like AIQ, use a standard exponential moving average (EMA) as the average instead of Wilder's SMMA.
Wilder originally formulated the calculation of the moving average as: newval = (prevval * (period - 1) + newdata) / period. This if fully equivalent to the aforementioned exponential smoothing. New data is simply divided by period which is equal to the alpha calculated value of 1/period. Previous average values are modified by (period -1)/period which in effect is period/period - 1/period and finally 1 - 1/period which is 1 - alpha.
The ratio of these averages is the relative strength or relative strength factor:



If the average of D values is zero, then according to the equation, the RS value will approach infinity, so that the resulting RSI, as computed below, will approach 100.
The relative strength factor is then converted to a relative strength index between 0 and 100:[1]



The smoothed moving averages should be appropriately initialized with a simple moving average using the first n values in the price series.

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Wrote down my strategy here but removed it since I wanna keep it to myself for now...