Friday, December 22, 2017

Cryptos VS Stocks, why i'm leaving CryptoTrading but staying as an investor

Cryptos vs Stocks

Overall

I won't be trading cryptos.  This will be it--in short, the time i'm spending on currencies is time away from refining my equities trading skills.

Returns

Cryptos are undeniably the hottest sector and is reminiscent of the 2000 Internet bubble.  For long-term investors, this might not end well for a lot of inexperienced investors/traders.  However, for traders that are risk averse-oriented that's capturing a slice of the big ass opportunity that's the ongoing bubble--so much opportunity everywhere to easily make 100-500% of your position size which is INSANE.  The downside is that having a huge position size on some of the smaller-known altcoins can result in a loss of 30-50% in a day or two.

Stocks on the other hand, i'm only reasonably expecting to grab anywhere of 3%-8% of a 30% move.  I am able to control my risk much more with stocks because the platforms I use for stocks are much more mature and has hotkey capabilities.

It really is a struggle NOT to want the returns of crypto trading.  The returns far outweigh the risk involved ESPECIALLY if I am participating in pump and dump groups that routinely manipulate these unregulated markets.  The returns of cryptos far exceed that of stocks but there is one con that I will explain further below.

Liquidity

Anything on the top 20 actually has enough liquidity to support the type of trading I do.  When I was in a couple of groups that try to spot pump groups for alt coins--the $volume for some of the picks sometimes is barely 1million.  Hell yes its easy money to make x5-x10 of your money in a day or two but coupled with the fact that I don't like pump groups--i'm fine not trading false hype like this because I'm already at the point i'm primarily not trading for money anyways.  In short--finding pumps or even manipulating the market to lure in outside cash from new investor/traders is fun and all, but it's not my cup of tea.

TIME

This is pretty much what catches and reels me in.  Crypto market is 24/7 and trying to find pumps is a 25/7 job.  Yes, it's a 25 hour job because it takes a lot more than what I currently have in a day to be able to track and keep in touch with the smaller altcoin market somewhat.  Unless i'm in a group where we will be clearing out the bid or ask to wipe out weak hands--most of the time in cryptos is just waiting since you do not necessarily know exactly when the volume will be coming in.  So like i said--most of the time is spent waiting.. Trading is patience.. but If i had a choice between finding a market that has a consistent time day after day where the volume is high and a specific time--i'll choose that even if it has less returns.

Swing trading cryptos--I can do and really is what I've been doing in cryptos.

vs Stocks-- Stocks has a market open and a market close.  The good thing about the stock market is that fact that during the open--a TON of volume is pushed through everyday at 930am-10am.  I can literally trade for 10minutes up to 1-2hrs max and call it a day.  The returns will be far inferior than that of the crypto market--but like I said, I trade not for the sole reason of the money anyways.

But can't I just trade cryptos--make a million then quit it entirely?  Yes, but it was never about the million for me anyways.

There are plenty of markets out there outside of the crypto market that I can make a million dollars from.  Crypto market is just another asset class in which a portfolio can be diversified into.

LTC Short success, LTC short chased and multiple lesson day

Last Crypto Trading/LTC

There's a lot of good lessons here.  Some revisits prior lessons, some reinforces new concepts/rules just learned and some new ones that I've just come upon.

1)  LTC Swing Lessons-- I saw signs of LTC toppinng out at 420, this was a deja vu from the ETH trade back in JUNE.. I initiated profit taking and sold 1/4 size at an avg exit for 360 with an avg entry of 70.  There was no clarity and conviction on exactly how much profit taking I was going to take therefore no further profit taking or trailing stops were put into place.




2)  LTC Short Scalp-- I decided to scalp some stoploss/panic selling.  I ended up on a short position too early.  Shorting in currency aren't as risky as stocks since you do not start with a negative position that you HAVE to cover at a later time--because of this false confidence, I let it go a little bit against me.  Once it went back my way and broke 250, I started buying my intial position back in for a 10% profit.
I have to be careful shorting too early, I was early by 25$.  I need to develop more patience on waiting for a better short entry.




3)  LTC Swing Stop Fail/Chased Scalp Short Fail/Buying the Panic Fail-- When I checked how LTC was doing, I saw it had broke through 200 and was at 170.  The position size I had was what I though was manageable--but the speed it broke through 200 and the want of scalping it pushed me into a trade.  At first I didn't check how far the panic had already been in and experienced a FEAR OF LOSS.  I was able to subconsciously take a breather and regained composure.  However, unlike what my system for trading equities, I did not pre-define my risk going into my short and I was just going off my gut instinct that it had a little bit more to go.

I chased shorting LTC at 170 looking for a 150 breakdown and more panic selling.  It broke 150 and I sold my Longterm position at once it broke 150 as well.  Earlier before doing this blog post I thought it was because I got scared out of my position/FEAR OF LOSS but now that I'm doing my AAR--the reason I sold wasn't because of FEAR but was of GREED--I wanted to ADD to my position.

My LTC position was only 25% of my whole crypto porftolio that I have already accepted that I can lose getting wiped out completely--the reason I sold all at 150 was to add to my existing short position.  It was a crazy battle between buyers and sellers at 150 with the spread widening up to $30.  I knew this was the bottom but I had frozen--Instead of getting back into LTC I hesitated as it rose.  Once it hit 170 I should've wen't back in breakeven or at least at 200 where my mental short stop was.  But I didn't do anything--eventually I applied my rule where if I broke a rule today, I wouldn't trade anymore.  That's at least one thing I did right today.  It's at 250 now by the time I'm writing this post.. 60% gain in 1hr is what I missed out on.  I have to tell myself it's ok though--there'll be more opportunities in the future.

4)  Don't mix trading capitals that have different time horizons--don't mix day trading, swing trading, investments together.  What can be a buy signal in one time frame can be a sell signal in another.  Planning helps lol.. Since there was no clarity and distinction between my positions--I sold my long LTC position inadvertently along with the portion I was scalping with.

5)  Don't have any distractions while trading.
Since this wasn't stocks, i've been alot more lenient/flexible with a few of my old rules.  In a 15second window I wasn't looking--I missed vital information of LTC bottoming out at 150.