* On a side note, when I only got 3% of a 40% move on Nvidia (NVDA) last month due to overtrading and being emotional on a too big of a position size. The lessons learned from that mess engraved itself into me. Thankfully, I was able to grow and execute alot better on Ethereum (ETH)*
Not shown is a Consolidating triangle, I sold off some yesterday at around the $390-$400 but decided to hold a majority of it since the last few consolidations have gone up. I should've realized that this was much much more extended chart than the last 3 triangles. I went to sleep and I woke up with it at 350. I sold off some more and wanted to get out when it retouches the 12 EMA.
The price action breaking down below the 1hr Time frame's moving averages are a very, VERY BEARISH SIGN. I ignored that sign and held through as it broke down. It ended up retouching the 12 EMA again but I didn't sell into the bounce like an idiot =(. It started hovering around 350 again and I started to get emotionally paranoid over the $30 range I missed on selling into.
I had convinced myself to risk $50 worth of range on the rest since it might bounce off a bigger triangle that had Support at ~340. I went ahead and set my stop loss at 326 just after a big bid since I know i'm already emotionally compromised and wanted to take the execution off the trade out of my hands.
I went to the coffee place I study at and when I got there I saw that my Stop got hit =/. It blew through the moving average on the 6h Timeframe (A very bearish sign) It's whatever, I've calculated it that I've made my initial investment back + profit already. What's bothering me atm is that I might've just sold bottom LOL.. but I still have ETH i'm HODL.
If the price action breaks below the 12 EMA on the Daily Chart.. ETH is done for for the next few months until we get a good catalyst going.
Shown Below is a rundown on what happened. *Someone else's Technical Analysis. I had a gut feeling for this but I wasn't using my usual indicators to measure whether the momentum has peaked. It feels like it peaked but HODL fucked me over..
HUGE LESSON: It's much, much easier emotionally to sell on the way up than it is to sell on the way down or breakeven.
UPDATE: 15 June 2017 0020
I just started using Kraken's charts... FML !!!! If I actually used real charts instead of this HODL bullshit and winging it =/ .. I could've locked in profits much much sooner. I had the gut feeling the momentum was dead at $380 but relied too much on my charts in ThinkOrSwim for confirmation. Next time a pattern comes up in ETH, I'm sooooo going to take advantage of this and Actually trade it fully instead of this HODL bullshit.. $1500 lesson in unknowingly/inadvertently trying to catch a falling knife. In a way, the stop loss might've been the best decision at that time since I had "Paralysis in Analysis". Without charts I was doing a guessing game (Still pretty good for no indicators haha).
Re-buy at 250-280ish once we find support.
It's crazy that this is exactly how I spot tops in stocks and it works in finding tops in cryptos. Sucks I can't short ETH. What's really interesting is that since this is hype related-- A huge wall of sellers is resistance.. but A huge wall of buyers isn't neccessarily support as shown in the Book Depth. Fear is HUUUUGE in Cryptocurrencies..
Anyways, unless a new catalyst comes along..
This is a falling knife...
UPDATE 15 June 2017 12:00 PM
Woke up and checked my phone. Zach (A friend that I talk ETH with) had msg'd me about ETH dipping. I checked it and saw that it had broken through 300 and tore down stop losses and bounced off 250-280 and is now back up to 340.. Fuck me right? I call out a plan but I didn't trade it.
On the other hand, this would've been a nice buy through the panic selling at $300 stop losses at $250 support. Awkward, as much as I know that this uptrend is only temporary, FOMO still hit me and wanted to buy at at 320.. but the most recent large momentum is a downtrend. I can see this dropping back down to $250 or worse if we don't find support.
Trying to catch this bottom is very risky, I'd buy on a dip if it breaks out past $350.
or at a higher low once it finds a support level it consolidates at. But at the moment, I can see it being anywhere from $280 - $350. I deposited some cash back into Coinbase taking roughly 6 days. I can tell I'm emotionally compromised from missing out on that dip. This 6day respite will help me calm down and see the chart for what it really is.