Sunday, April 30, 2017

Crossroads: Warrior Trading vs Trading Tickers/IU style trading vs MADAZ

January -- my style of trading has been to risk off support/resistances.  Buy dips/sell into strength.. Catching momentum using MACD to make sure i'm on the right side of the momentum.  The market was hot and I was on fire.  The trading crisis I had mid January was more due to psychological errors and had nothing to do with the strategy I was using.  I couldn't see it then but I ended up getting Warrior Trading to try and learn a more refined way of entering trades as well as a different strategy.

February - April -- I've learned the Warrior Trading style which has me looking into entries using candlesticks for the first time and really had a good intro into tape reading.  I've also delved more into swing trading while I studied WarriorTrading Pro.

Swing Trading -- It was a sloooow 3 months but it was a good experience since the emotional rollercoaster experienced during daytrading was slowed down to where I had time to analyze how I was feeling during the ups/downs of being in a trade.

     The euphoria of being in a profitable trade and the inflated ego/pride that cost leaving more than 70% of unrealized gains on the table.

     The depression of being in a losing trade and the emotions of denial, refusal to be wrong, reluctance of taking a loss, and changing the original plan to rationalize my emotions instead of acknowledging what the market is telling me.  Each wrong led to another wrong which snowballed me into a psychological trap that I couldn't get out of until the loss became too great to ignore.

** Rule #1: Cut Losses and stick to stops
If I didn't learn enough on seeing NVDA crash after a positive ER, It didn't stick till I was in AMD when It crashed on in-line ER.  At least it's at a discounted price now.

_________________________________________________________________________________

My problem right now is that the core WT style of trading contradicts my old style using established supports as risk levels.  Instead of being selective of my trades, I've started to get in lower quality setups.

Huge advantages of WT Pro is that on extremely hot markets, I now have learned tools such as reading candlesticks/level 2 to use to enter/set my risk.  I'm still getting used to reading the Time/Sales while looking at level 2.

Huge disadvantage of WT Pro is that on sideways/bearish markets.  Whipsaw action are huge due to setting risk levels on arbitrary price points and not on previously established support levels.  Ross has had a tough time trading through this and It felt like a huge WALL trying to trade in a clear bearish/shorter's market.  This is a previous chart I uploaded on the Gap and Crap:


It's nice to have learned WT Pro style and it will be a tool for me to use during overall hot markets for hot stocks.  I've felt sideways on this since I did spend alot for the WT pro that I could've used as capital but I feel that it was worth seeing that I did get what I wanted out of WT Pro.

1) Control FOMO/Find ways to spot when i'm chasing on Longs/Experience first hand what happens when you chase seeing Ross have a tough time and go through trader Rehab for April/May.
2) Tape reading..

I ran into MADAZ on youtube, another scalper that is also a very fast tape reader. Back in December, I couldn't decipher anything that Ross was looking at, but now I've got an idea at what he sees.  MADAZ on the other hand adapts to how the market is doing and scalps both long AND short.  What more that I like from him is that he doesn't focus on where and how the candlesticks close but focuses specifically on support/resistance levels and how the TAPE reacts around those areas.  Which is how I trade back in january but he does it in the timeframe of SECONDS.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8HfvGHz7Av0&list=PLR26t0AnySjkLkxETkds3qcYVyQe_l3kp&index=5

** I've noticed that lagging indicators are always behind the price action so I started to use multiple timeframs back in December to make sure that i'm on the right side of the move.  But now, I've also noticed that candlesticks in different timeframes can tell different stories. The true indicator of where price direction really is the tape, the one limitation of it is that the larger the timeframe gets--the importance of tape reading gives way to higher TF support/resistance levels--but at the same time keeping in mind that any unknown large trader/institution/catalyst can easily break those same levels.

I've actually noticed this before last year then during the open when stocks would crap in the open--hit a support level--and shoot straight back up green always wondering why it just didn't shoot straight up.  What would happen then was that I would buy at the bell and sell into the panic just to watch it bounce of the level and go green without me.

** MADAZ pretty much trades just that in the open.. support/resistance levels but on a scalping time frame.  What scares me though is not having enough experience watching the tape to see the difference between a levels holding or the price action BLOWING THROUGH the level.  This one fact along is the main reason why I can't do a scalper's timeframe and need a slower TF to trade off.  But now that I've seen a scalper use support/resistance levels as his stops than using arbitrary stop points--I've got more confidence back towards my own style of trading.

Importance of CATALYSTS

It's hard not to get into a trade when the chart pattern sets up well but with no know catalyst.  I've stayed away from them while Ross had a hard time playing them.  They do have potential though, most of these no catalyst but good chart pattern plays are short squeezes and I need to read the chart first whether I can tell there are shorts trapped or not in order to play.  If not, I need to stay away from the chart.

FEB-APR Lessons learned:
1) Understanding what the catalyst is important for future potential momentum
2) Stick to stop losses
3) Take 2-3 Days off to reset after a big rule break/Have an emotional thermometer beside the Monitor.
________________________________________________________________________________

Stats for 21 April- 5 May
GapGo ----------------------- 1g
MOMO/1min MicroPB --- 2g/2r
MOMO/1min PB ---------- 1g
MOMO/5min PB ----------
MOMO/ABCD/MA PB -----
F3 EOD ---------------------
Short ------------------------ 2g
BAD ------------------------ 1g/7r


16 trades
7 green
9 red (8 were bad setups)
43.75% W/L Ratio #### Commissions

May 2nd Week Trading Plan-
60%+ W/L Ratio:
1) Focus on High Quality Setups
2) Sticking to stop losses
3) Picturing how the trades will be executed/my responses to the trade if it goes up or down--prior to taking the trade.

September Plan - Get capital ready to switch to CenterPoint Securities to focus on shorting.  Shorting is really where I feel like should be at.  I can easily see where my stop losses are at much easier and feel like it's much easier to execute the loss than being in a long trade where my reaction is to hold hoping it'll bounce back.



EXAS part deux



1st buy was b/o of pre-market high. I gave it too long to break 31 and should've sold just under.

2nd buy was a 20cent risk to go back to HOD 30-40cents.  A 1-2 Risk/Reward ratio except the fact that I had to go to a promotion ceremony/assignment briefing.  This cements that I shouldn't leave a trade open.  I justified that It would be a hold til end of day/I'll be back by power hour.  I missed the opportunity to exit my trade whilei I was gone and I came back as it was dancing around the Vwap at breakeven point.  Instead of being able to fully re-assess the pattern, I rationalized that I will be turning this into a o/n swing just like my AMD mistake.  The day trade should've been exited out at breakeven or next support at 3.20-3.30 area but once it fell down to where it opened on the day at 3.20 I changed the exit level again down to just break below 30--set a stop loss and logged off/went to sleep. Arbitrary number since a stronger support/prev. afternoon support was at 29.5-29.6.  I checked back in when I woke up at night to see it hit my stop loss.

Pros:
1st buy was good entry, was slow on exiting once 31 was facing resistance. Best to miss out than to give back.

2nd buy was good but how it was managed was horrible and a repeat of my AMD daytrade-turned-to-swing trade mistake.  I got tunnel visioned when I got back and it was hovering at VWAP.  Looking back at it at hindsight, I couldn't see the descending triangle that formed and wasn't able to get out of the trade.

******************* +1 Day after *******************
Ugh... I called yesterday that my stoploss just below 30 was an arbitrary number and the strong support was at 29.5-29.6.  I took the morning off but this is what happened.  There's a huge dissonance between how I traded using TradingTickers/IU vs what I've learned from Warrior Trading and it's night and day on.  I'll post more on this later but it's troubling me for now till I find a way to find a compromise between both strategies.



** NEW SYSTEM Proposal **
Every 10/15/30/60mins or intervals during a longer trade, I should re-assess my position as if I have no position.  Learning the WT Scalping way is making me forget how to assess where strong support/resistance levels are.

** Will edit this when I have more time

EXAS





Some movement pre-market but they had no good positive catalysts... EXAS was an earnings winner but higher priced/market cap so I went in small..

1st buy went as planned, need to work on the exit
2nd buy went well with good exits
3rd buy saw topping action and exit-ed to be safe.. noticed it reversing

1st short went well with good exits
2nd short exit-ed right before the crack
3rd short was FOMO trade from missing the crack of support... tried to exit at 28.6 but platform crashed and got out at 28.85 once it restarted.

Pros:  Exiting trades as planned if not early.  Better to miss out than to give back..
Cons:  FOMO, I knew it was a FOMO trade much earlier though and was fully aware of it and having a tighter stop than normal.  This trade was a repeat of my NVDA swing with the same emotions felt.  Much better traded than the NVDA swing and much more aware/control over my emotions affecting my trading.

Nice F3 EOD Pattern for a swing but I wasn't in the market.

**** CATALYSTS ARE IMPORTANT !!!

** Will edit this when I have more time

Friday, April 21, 2017

NADL, PTX

Nothing 3* or 4* moving pre-market.  Been feeling bummed out, haven't traded regularly since early January and doubts of me being able to make it starting to build up.  Going to trade small just to dip my feet in and see where I am at as far as:

1 - Reading the Tape
2 - Defining the risk
3 - Pre-defining the loss
4 - Using the Hotkeys setup/Getting used to my new screen Setup
5 - Watching OHLC candles
6 - Watching volume

NADL 2*

Contract winner just a few days back, gapping up slightly pre-market on some less than ideal volume.  Kind of not liking it since 3-3.2 was rejecting hard yesterday.  I can't tell whether it would be a breakout or hard resistance =/.



1min micro pullback target was sell 1/2 at 10cents up and move the stop at break even to practice.  Sold half at topping action on level 2, FORGOT to move the stop to breakeven, I didn't even think about it once I was in the trade.  I didn't wait for the 10cent stop, I stopped out at as soon as I saw the PRICE ACTION looking like it would break my stop. 

Lessons learned:
1 - Reading the Tape - I felt good reading the tape on this one and it felt clear and felt the flow.  Need more practice to gain confidence.

2 - Defining the risk - Was always bad at this before but with the automatic 10cent stop>move up to breakeven helps sooo much more.  Coupled with chasing, not defining my risk was the main cause of my top losses ever.

3 - Pre-defining the loss - The difference between this and defining the risk is that defining the loss is to picture the motions of your stop loss getting hit prior to the trade.  What actions from the tape/chart am I looking for to know when to get out?  This is something that I need to work on High priority.

4 - Using the Hotkeys setup/Getting used to my new screen Setup - SOOOO MUCH better than the process that I used to back then.  Never going back to ToS for putting my orders in.  It prolly took me at least 30secs to full put my orders in back then not including ToS giving me an error code.  I had no chance with Gap and Gos using my setups backthen.  Execution was lightning fast vs ToS as well, insanely fast and the level 2/Time and Sales updates almost twice-three times faster than ToS.  Problem with this is that this gives me the ability to scalp more, something that I see as a potential problem in the future with overtrading.

5 - Watching OHLC candles - Not bad either

6 - Watching volume - Did not really see it during the trade, Need to work on.

7 - I only really fully noticed/realized that the 10cent stop from WT is an arbitrary price point with no level of support unless it just happens to coincide with the stop breaking out of a key level resistance that turns into support.  But for most of the other time especially during pullbacks, it really is just putting structure into the trade so that your mind/actions/behavior can easily follow to form a habit.  Unlike my previous way of finding support and basing my risk/position size off that, this strategy is really all about grabbing bits of momentum as they move up.  The big problem really is that although you have the pullbacks to use as an entry, in choppy markets, nasty whipsaws can really blow your risk/reward ratio off.

8 - Forgetting to move the stop loss at breakeven was a preventable but acceptable mistake since it's my first time doing this.  I read this from disciplined trader to start playing out the trade PRIOR to the trade happening and I think that if I had played the trade out at least 5 times, I would've had better preparation and increased my chances of remembering to stop at breakeven.

PTX 2* (From where I entered)

Hit the HOD Scanner, way extended already from where Ross entered but decided to go in on the next 1min micropullback at 75.  Still felt a slight FOMO, I should've spent more time assessing the viability of the entry whether I was chasing or not.



BREAKOUT or BAILOUT !! I need to really get this mentality down.

Entry was Insanely quick, my target was going to be just below 5.  I'm not exactly too sure what happened, I could've sworn I pressed the hotkey to get out 1/2 but it's also possible I talked myself out during the trade to see if it broke 5.  If so, greed got in the way but I don't feel like that's what happened post-trade.  Anyways I saw it coming back down and tried to sell 1/2 on the ask at 90 but wasn't getting filled.  

(Mistake #1) Downsized half when the momentum started going back down THINKING that it'll bounce off my entry *ARBITRARY* which was completely stupid since it's not a support level of any sort and my stop will be at 10cent below my entry.  I heard Ross comment then that 4.5 looks like a good mental stop to be at (support?) but i registered it as a good support level.  WT uses mental stop points as exit points and does not necessarily mean as support.  I'm so used to having my mental stops at key levels of support that it's conflicting with how I used to trade.  (Mistake #2) I let Ross's comment change my thinking and (Mistake #3) altered my stop to 4.5 instead of sticking to my original plan.  Ross's entry was at the 3.7 area. Mine? hah.. a full dollar after.. I shouldn't have let other people's comments affect my trade.  Result = x3 the loss I wanted.

** Big NoNo's
1 - I didn't assess my emotional state post trade.
2 - Did not assess the viability of the entry whether I was chasing or not.
3 - Start treating the 10cent stop as a EXIT POINT ONLY and not a support level.
4 - ** Just like my AMD/NDA Swings.  Stop altering the intial plan when your LOSING and just get out.

Things to do:
1 - Set up a POST Trade checklist easily accessible and will catch my attention visually on the table.
2 - Pre-game the trade in my head prior to the trade.
3 - Vocalize what's going on during the trade.



Friday, April 14, 2017

April/May Trading Plan


Risk:
$50 Max loss on GapGo, 
$50 Momo Pullback Stocks, 
$50 Max loss on F3 Earnings/ContractWins, 
$50 Max loss on KyZen Shorts. 
$100 Max/Day, <$2.00 Stock Price = Smaller Position.

Will come back and of April to share progress..