Thursday, August 1, 2019

July Monthly Review

Review of July GTOs:

July Playbook Revised:
1)  Bounce Short- 10m>30m>50m resistance volumes and 50%+ on HOD = 2k, 4k, 6k shares  Will be readjusting share size to skill level.
2)  Bounce Short FMC- up at least 40% on HOD wait for 400k+ 5m stuff candle or trend breakdown near resistance = 1k, 2k, 3k shares Will consider removing this completely since this strategy will fall under new entry and sizing rules for the Bounce Short strategy.
3)  AM Mean Rev / Intraday Gap Reversal- Must be 1:2 Risk/Reward from EMA + LowrHighs = 2R on 5EMA, 4R on 15EMA.  Size in 1/3rds.  5min cover 1/4 at 1st target and 15min cover 1/2 at 2nd target unless it's a bounce short !!  No adjustments, was working well this month.
4)  AM Mean Rev 1st Bounce- Avg must be in upper 60% of range, use 5m candle minimum= 1/4 of Max size for that trade Cover ALL at 1st target unless a Bounce Short.  I had much less problems with Bad bounce adds this month than I did in June.


TRADING GOALS TIL END OF JULY:
1)  Maintain this size until mid July for mid-month Review, SLOW IT DOWN !! Do the prep work required-- Recon 1 + Recon 2 !!  Shit was all over the place while traveling.  When I got home, I still didn't have my shit together and it SHOWS in my trading.  Get your shit together, Complete the routine, calm your mind and do your Recon 1 + Recon 2 PRIOR to entering the trade.
     SUCCESS is when PREPARATION meets OPPORTUNITY !! Do the Prep Work !!
2)  ALL Trades must fit ONE of the Playbook Plays, Verbalize play PRIOR to entering Totally forgot about this !!  This can totally help me out on my Non-Playbook Trades and Boredom Trading which was a massive epidemic this month.
3)  ALL TRADES are based on the 5min Chart as a minimum.. with focus on S/R Levels, If there is no S/R Levels, Focus on Price action and 15m Chart !!! #1 Priority is S/R Levels, #2 is th 15m TF minimum now after 10AM or Shares above 20m. Mandatory 30m TF after NOON !!
4)  HIGHLIGHT HIGH RISK PLAYS PRIOR TO ENTERING !!:
          - Under $2.00 Stock
          - <2m Float
          - >1m Volume in Pre-Market
          - Positive Phase II or III Trials
          - BigCap Company mentioned in Press Release FUCKING APRN !!
5)  No 2nd Green Day/No resistance Trades unless it 100% 1st day and 100% on 2nd Day.  The one thing I didn't have problems with was because I wasn't active enough to see a 2nd day trade!!


Month Progress:

     As a backdrop on what happened this month.  The first week was extremely slow. 2 days I didn't trade.  I had 2 good trades but had 9 Random Trades.  Lots of them were AM Mean Rev on Higher Mktcap stocks.  Being on the 15m TF really helped on the higher caps.  The slow market really got me bored and I will be traveling from July 10 on til the end of the month.

     Trading while traveling was a horrible experience for me as the month went on.  In the beginning it was nice because I felt like a sniper and I only traded the best setups.  CEI Bounce short I noticed while in a hotel in tokyo and I sized in nice but got caught in a squeeze, I was able to capitalize on the squeeze to add at the top, however because of the squeeze I took profits way earlier than planned.  It still ended well and caught the 1st bounce and even held a piece (600shares) till the close which I went to sleep and woke up to close the position for.

     I tried to trade in Korea, but by then, I was too tired and wasn't in the right calmness to trade.  I got impatient and got in trades too early.  I wasn't able to stop out and sized up against the plan.  When the trade finally went in my favor, I covered too much too early since I was already too mentally tired to see the trade through to the profit targets with proper size.  I basically scaled down the size to where I was prior to the squeeze cutting the profits short on the adds I had on the top.  On the 19th I ended up getting squeezed scalping short in a BYND that was breaking out on the daily.  I did NOT see the BYND at the time even though in hindsight was a very clear sign of a b/o on the daily.  I told myself I was out of it and stopped trading til I get home.

     Trading at home, I ran into similar problems I had earlier in the year.  1)  Interruptions are still there  2)  Even though i'm alot calmer, I still let it distract me and it shows in my trading.  Key things learned will be below.

1)  I'm taking trades away from my niche using the AM Mean Rev Strategy.  Although it's good that i'm experimenting/expanding my playbook.  This was unplanned and is contributing to me being restless from not being able to trade.  For the 1st half of August.  NO non-niche plays will be made and the mandatory >50% only setups will be enforced.

2)  Plans will be Mandatory based off the 15m Chart Post 10AM, and 30m TF Post Noon.

3)  At a minimum, get back to 100% AM Routine Completion.

Charts that got me in trouble:



As a reminder to what happens If I let myself be undisciplined/too fucking stupid:



This (August) MONTH'S FOCUS is PATIENCE and not playing anything under 50%, 2-4 entries with last 1/2 size on the backside ONLY and 3 exits max

GTOs til End of August:

August Playbook:
1)  Bounce Short- 10m>30m>50m resistance, >50%+ on HOD = $15k, $25k, $35k Max Pos Size
*** No more than 1/4 Size on the front side and Only add the last 1/2 on the b/d of 15m candle, cover 1/3 on 15m EMA, cover up to 1/4 at 50% of spike, 1/4 size at EOD.
2)  Bounce Short FMC- up at least 40% on HOD wait for 400k+ 5m stuff candle or trend breakdown near resistance = 1/4-1/3 of Bounce Short Size
3)  AM Mean Rev / Intraday Gap Reversal- Must be 1:2 Risk/Reward from EMA + LowrHighs = 2R on 5EMA, 4R on 15EMA.  Size in 1/3rds.  5min cover 1/4 at 1st target and 15min cover ALL at 2nd target unless it's a bounce short !! Can hold 1/4 up to 30m Target if situation provides the opportunity.  Max Position Size = $10k.  If 2 Factors from High Risk Play, Max Pos Size = $5k.  Revisit at Mid-Month and double if doing well after 1st week. If >$20 stock, Max Pos Size $30k
4)  AM Mean Rev 1st Bounce- Avg must be in upper 60% of range, use 5m candle minimum= 1/4 of Max size for that trade Cover ALL at 1st target unless a Bounce Short.

TRADING GOALS TIL END OF August:
1)  Maintain Mandatory >50% Setups until mid August for mid-month Review, SLOW IT DOWN !! Do the prep work required-- Recon 1 + Recon 2 !!  Set Alerts and turn off Trading Setup after 11AM if slow day !!
2)  ALL Trades must fit ONE of the Playbook Plays, Verbalize play PRIOR to entering
3)  ALL TRADES are Mandatory based off the 15m Chart Post 10AM, and 30m TF Post Noon.
4)  HIGHLIGHT HIGH RISK PLAYS PRIOR TO ENTERING !!:
          - Fresh Chart or NO DAILY RESISTANCE and shorting <50%
          - <2m Float
          - >1m Volume in Pre-Market
          - Positive Phase II or III Trials
          - BigCap Company mentioned in Press Release
5)  No 2nd Green Day/No resistance Trades unless it 100% 1st day and 100% on 2nd Day.


Discipline is a lagging indicator.  Focus on your behavior in the NOW moment.

Learning Lesson:  Listen to Emotion > Change my state > ASK QUESTIONS > Focus on the process/grind.  Shrug it off and keep moving forward !!


If there is nothing today fitting the criteria, either study or take the day off !!!



PREMEDITATIO MALORUM

FEAR SETTING / FEAR REHEARSAL for the week:
DEFINE ----------------------------- PREVENT ----------------------------- Repair


1)  FOMO ------------------------------Pre-Market Preparation -------- Sleep on Time to wake up on time
2)  FOMO ----------------------- Follow ONLY Playbook Trades --- There's always opportunity LATER
3)  Fear of Losing $$$$------ Bracket the orders and let SL get hit ------- Reassess if Entry was correct


WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS OF PARTIAL SUCCESS:

1) As long as I remain resilient and refine my systems--I am one step closer to CPT
2) If I wake up early enough--I will be awake for screen time and accomplish more tasks.
3) If I reduce FOMO  trades--I will preserve my capital and improve my discipline.

Accept the emotions and no longer identify with them.  It's much easier to see things in the external world without passing judgement on them..

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