* On a side note, when I only got 3% of a 40% move on Nvidia (NVDA) last month due to overtrading and being emotional on a too big of a position size. The lessons learned from that mess engraved itself into me. Thankfully, I was able to grow and execute alot better on Ethereum (ETH)*
Not shown is a Consolidating triangle, I sold off some yesterday at around the $390-$400 but decided to hold a majority of it since the last few consolidations have gone up. I should've realized that this was much much more extended chart than the last 3 triangles. I went to sleep and I woke up with it at 350. I sold off some more and wanted to get out when it retouches the 12 EMA.
The price action breaking down below the 1hr Time frame's moving averages are a very, VERY BEARISH SIGN. I ignored that sign and held through as it broke down. It ended up retouching the 12 EMA again but I didn't sell into the bounce like an idiot =(. It started hovering around 350 again and I started to get emotionally paranoid over the $30 range I missed on selling into.
I had convinced myself to risk $50 worth of range on the rest since it might bounce off a bigger triangle that had Support at ~340. I went ahead and set my stop loss at 326 just after a big bid since I know i'm already emotionally compromised and wanted to take the execution off the trade out of my hands.
I went to the coffee place I study at and when I got there I saw that my Stop got hit =/. It blew through the moving average on the 6h Timeframe (A very bearish sign) It's whatever, I've calculated it that I've made my initial investment back + profit already. What's bothering me atm is that I might've just sold bottom LOL.. but I still have ETH i'm HODL.
If the price action breaks below the 12 EMA on the Daily Chart.. ETH is done for for the next few months until we get a good catalyst going.
Shown Below is a rundown on what happened. *Someone else's Technical Analysis. I had a gut feeling for this but I wasn't using my usual indicators to measure whether the momentum has peaked. It feels like it peaked but HODL fucked me over..
I played the bounce on the first pennant as shown by my ETH Scalp post. I also saw where the next pivot point was going to be. Unfortunately, instead of it breaking out. It finally brokedown, I had a deep gut feeling it was going to break down from the heavy ask. Sellers outnumbered the buyers by almost 4-1 at some points. The 0.43ETH gain I got from the first pennant is overshadowed by a $1500 unrealized gain loss. Sigh.. It's similar to last week's Nvidia play again but with better responses on my part. I'mma keep watching how this new pennant plays out but most likely not trade it.
HUGE LESSON: It's much, much easier emotionally to sell on the way up than it is to sell on the way down or breakeven.
UPDATE: 15 June 2017 0020
I just started using Kraken's charts... FML !!!! If I actually used real charts instead of this HODL bullshit and winging it =/ .. I could've locked in profits much much sooner. I had the gut feeling the momentum was dead at $380 but relied too much on my charts in ThinkOrSwim for confirmation. Next time a pattern comes up in ETH, I'm sooooo going to take advantage of this and Actually trade it fully instead of this HODL bullshit.. $1500 lesson in unknowingly/inadvertently trying to catch a falling knife. In a way, the stop loss might've been the best decision at that time since I had "Paralysis in Analysis". Without charts I was doing a guessing game (Still pretty good for no indicators haha).
Re-buy at 250-280ish once we find support.
It's crazy that this is exactly how I spot tops in stocks and it works in finding tops in cryptos. Sucks I can't short ETH. What's really interesting is that since this is hype related-- A huge wall of sellers is resistance.. but A huge wall of buyers isn't neccessarily support as shown in the Book Depth. Fear is HUUUUGE in Cryptocurrencies..
Anyways, unless a new catalyst comes along..
This is a falling knife...
UPDATE 15 June 2017 12:00 PM
Woke up and checked my phone. Zach (A friend that I talk ETH with) had msg'd me about ETH dipping. I checked it and saw that it had broken through 300 and tore down stop losses and bounced off 250-280 and is now back up to 340.. Fuck me right? I call out a plan but I didn't trade it.
On the other hand, this would've been a nice buy through the panic selling at $300 stop losses at $250 support. Awkward, as much as I know that this uptrend is only temporary, FOMO still hit me and wanted to buy at at 320.. but the most recent large momentum is a downtrend. I can see this dropping back down to $250 or worse if we don't find support.
Trying to catch this bottom is very risky, I'd buy on a dip if it breaks out past $350.
or at a higher low once it finds a support level it consolidates at. But at the moment, I can see it being anywhere from $280 - $350. I deposited some cash back into Coinbase taking roughly 6 days. I can tell I'm emotionally compromised from missing out on that dip. This 6day respite will help me calm down and see the chart for what it really is.
