Sunday, July 30, 2017

Returning to the old me

You don't need to be someone else, you just need to return to the old you. So often we think that to break our bad habits, we need to become an entirely new person. The truth is that you already have it in you to be someone without your bad habits. In fact, it's very unlikely that you had these bad habits all of your life. You don't need to quit smoking, you just need to return to being a non–smoker. You don't need to transform into a healthy person, you just need to return to being healthy. Even if it was years ago, you have already lived without this bad habit, which means you can most definitely do it again. - James Clear

Friday, July 28, 2017

AMD, NVDA, Targeting my bad habits

AMD


AMD hit ~13.7ish.  I know that I most likely wouldn't have held that long as it is. But because I gave in to fear and didn't follow the plan I had setup with a $20 loss as my risk.  I accepted at $12 loss and missed out on a potential ~<$180 profit.  Overall, I think this is the first time i've developed a short plan ahead of time with specificity.  Best planning yet, but execution and handling my emotions was the key problem here.  On top of planning ahead, I MUST ALSO, play out the trade AND EMOTIONS through my head ahead of time.

NVDA


This was just a nice swing I had.  My entry was too early and was in the red for a week but didn't hit my stop loss.  The 1st green line is pointing to the wrong candle there then I started adding on the way up.  The last 2 adds were speculative and lost money on it but I had adjusted my risk and had trailing stops in place to lock in profits.  Overall, Initial entry could have been alot better, but the adds and exits were spot on as planned.  Note:  I used hard stops for my swings since I don't babysit them all day.

TARGETING BAD HABITS

My analysis and planning on paper is now profitable but the execution is where i'm struggling alot.  I have learned from my mistakes and created systems to mitigate them but I struggle in the execution of the plans.  This is habitual and my main priority for this next week is to dissect my bad habits and find a way to change them for the better.

HIT LIST for the week til Aug 3rd, 2017:
1)  Power of Habit by Charles Duhigg
2)  Smarter, Faster, Better by Charles Duhigg
3)  Emotional IQ 2.0 by Travis Bradberry
4)  Listening to Grant Cardone Daily


Friday, July 7, 2017

AVEO, VSTM


AVEO



I got freaked out of my position due to the VSTM trade. =/  Sigh... Back to basics for me..

VSTM



Back to basics for me... The setup was a 2* and was trading in a range from yesterday's highs and afternoon lows... I also doubled up on my position and overtraded it a total of 3 times...



July Goals
- Finish Arick's Videos
- Finish the 2 most recent weeks of Pennystocking Silver
- Finish Spikeability
______________________________________________________________________

- Go back to how I was trading back in Dec/January taking a position size based on support instead of an arbitrary 10cent loss.  Maximum loss per trade will be 60$ and I will not enter a position more than 30cents from the support.

CLSN, MSDI, Warrior Trading

CLSN


Acted on Guru talking for the 4th time.  Buy high to sell higher just whipsaws so bad for me.  It's best to buy low on support and sell high. sigh.. fml..

MSDI



I couldn't decide pre-market where to set my stop at either 1.5 or 1.55.. I ended up ignoring the wick.  Bell rings and it sells off with me getting stopped out and saw that it was holding 1.5 -_-... so sad.  I entered back in once it broke the pivot point I was looking for.  Had multiple buy and sells, overtraded it on the way up.. I got out of red but all the commissions ate up most of my realized gains.

WarriorTrading

So I've given it some time and scalping really isn't for me and i'm far more comfortable at Sykes/IU's style of trading.  One major help from WT though is that if it feels like i'm entering a position WT style.. it's a good chance i'm chasing..

Monday, July 3, 2017

SPEX, MSDI, Return to DayTrading

SPEX



MSDI



Basically, I chased on both and I knew I missed my opportunity at 3.5 on SPEX but I caught myself listening to Ross for 5min PB over 3.7.  It wasn't the best 5min PB at all but I still got influenced listening to him... Sigh... 5mins After the bell rings, I'll be turning off the chatroom from now on.

Both Entries on SPEX/MSDI were way far from the EMA...

Thursday, June 15, 2017

Finance Mythbreaker: Paying off a house in full costs you

Myth: Owning a house saves you money on income tax deductions (True)
         Paying a house in full costs you since you lose an income tax deduction (FALSE)

Assumptions:
I didn’t include a down payment because it’s not going to matter because the interest is only charged on the Outstanding Amount of the Loan every month.

Example:


Outstanding Loan Amount: $300,000 @ 4% on 30yr Fixed
Monthly Payment: $1432 ($432 Principal + $1000 Interest 70% of payment is INTEREST)
Annual Interest Paid: $12,000 due


Annual Household Income: $200,000 @ 28% Marginal Tax Rate = $ 60,568 Income Tax Due
Annual Household Income (After Tax Deduction): $188,000 @ 28% = $ 56,584 to Uncle Sam
Difference between Before and After the House Deduction = $3,984 Savings



Are you willing to pay $12,000 in interest per year to the bank in order to save $3,984 in Tax savings?


 $12,000             $1
-----------   =   ---------       Spend 1$ to save $0.33 cents does not make sense
 $3,984             $0.33


________________________________________________________________________________

I used this equation to calculate your monthly mortgage payment:

                r(1+r)^n
M = P -----------------
              (1+r)^n - 1

M is your monthly payment
P is your principal
r is your monthly interest rate, calculated by dividing your annual interest rate by 12
n is your number of payments (the number of payments you will be paying the loan)

Uncle Sam's Thievery plan this year:

Rate
Taxable Income Bracket
Tax Owed
10%
$0 to $18,650
10% of taxable income
15%
$18,650 to $75,900
$1,865 plus 15% of the excess over $18,650
25%
$75,900 to $153,100
$10,452.50 plus 25% of the excess over $75,900
28%
$153,100 to $233,350
$29,752.50 plus 28% of the excess over $153,100
33%
$233,350 to $416,700
$52,222.50 plus 33% of the excess over $233,350

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

ETH, Done Trading Cryptos for now... HODL !!!!

* On a side note, when I only got 3% of a 40% move on Nvidia (NVDA) last month due to overtrading and being emotional on a too big of a position size.  The lessons learned from that mess engraved itself into me.  Thankfully, I was able to grow and execute alot better on Ethereum (ETH)*



Not shown is a Consolidating triangle, I sold off some yesterday at around the $390-$400 but decided to hold a majority of it since the last few consolidations have gone up.  I should've realized that this was much much more extended chart than the last 3 triangles.  I went to sleep and I woke up with it at 350. I sold off some more and wanted to get out when it retouches the 12 EMA.  

The price action breaking down below the 1hr Time frame's moving averages are a very, VERY BEARISH SIGN.  I ignored that sign and held through as it broke down.  It ended up retouching the 12 EMA again but I didn't sell into the bounce like an idiot  =(.  It started hovering around 350 again and I started to get emotionally paranoid over the $30 range I missed on selling into.

I had convinced myself to risk $50 worth of range on the rest since it might bounce off a bigger triangle that had Support at ~340.  I went ahead and set my stop loss at 326 just after a big bid since I know i'm already emotionally compromised and wanted to take the execution off the trade out of my hands.


I went to the coffee place I study at and when I got there I saw that my Stop got hit =/.  It blew through the moving average on the 6h Timeframe (A very bearish sign)  It's whatever, I've calculated it that I've made my initial investment back + profit already.  What's bothering me atm is that I might've just sold bottom LOL.. but I still have ETH i'm HODL.

If the price action breaks below the 12 EMA on the Daily Chart.. ETH is done for for the next few months until we get a good catalyst going.


Shown Below is a rundown on what happened.  *Someone else's Technical Analysis.  I had a gut feeling for this but I wasn't using my usual indicators to measure whether the momentum has peaked. It feels like it peaked but HODL fucked me over..


I played the bounce on the first pennant as shown by my ETH Scalp post. I also saw where the next pivot point was going to be.  Unfortunately, instead of it breaking out.  It finally brokedown, I had a deep gut feeling it was going to break down from the heavy ask.  Sellers outnumbered the buyers by almost 4-1 at some points.  The 0.43ETH gain I got from the first pennant is overshadowed by a $1500 unrealized gain loss. Sigh.. It's similar to last week's Nvidia play again but with better responses on my part.  I'mma keep watching how this new pennant plays out but most likely not trade it.

HUGE LESSON:  It's much, much easier emotionally to sell on the way up than it is to sell on the way down or breakeven.

UPDATE: 15 June 2017 0020
I just started using Kraken's charts... FML !!!! If I actually used real charts instead of this HODL bullshit and winging it =/ .. I could've locked in profits much much sooner.  I had the gut feeling the momentum was dead at $380 but relied too much on my charts in ThinkOrSwim for confirmation.  Next time a pattern comes up in ETH, I'm sooooo going to take advantage of this and Actually trade it fully instead of this HODL bullshit.. $1500 lesson in unknowingly/inadvertently trying to catch a falling knife.  In a way, the stop loss might've been the best decision at that time since I had "Paralysis in Analysis".  Without charts I was doing a guessing game (Still pretty good for no indicators haha).

Re-buy at 250-280ish once we find support.


It's crazy that this is exactly how I spot tops in stocks and it works in finding tops in cryptos.  Sucks I can't short ETH.  What's really interesting is that since this is hype related-- A huge wall of sellers is resistance.. but A huge wall of buyers isn't neccessarily support as shown in the Book Depth.  Fear is HUUUUGE in Cryptocurrencies..

Anyways, unless a new catalyst comes along.. 
This is a falling knife...

UPDATE 15 June 2017 12:00 PM

Woke up and checked my phone.  Zach (A friend that I talk ETH with) had msg'd me about ETH dipping.  I checked it and saw that it had broken through 300 and tore down stop losses and bounced off 250-280 and is now back up to 340.. Fuck me right? I call out a plan but I didn't trade it.


On the other hand, this would've been a nice buy through the panic selling at $300 stop losses at $250 support.  Awkward, as much as I know that this uptrend is only temporary, FOMO still hit me and wanted to buy at at 320.. but the most recent large momentum is a downtrend.  I can see this dropping back down to $250 or worse if we don't find support.

Trying to catch this bottom is very risky, I'd buy on a dip if it breaks out past $350.

or at a higher low once it finds a support level it consolidates at.  But at the moment, I can see it being anywhere from $280 - $350.  I deposited some cash back into Coinbase taking roughly 6 days.  I can tell I'm emotionally compromised from missing out on that dip.  This 6day respite will help me calm down and see the chart for what it really is.