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http://averagejoedaytradr.blogspot.jp
Ed Martin - From Warrior Trading





http://nikkoricoo.blogspot.jp/





http://derricktrades.blogspot.jp/

http://tradetheticker.blogspot.jp/

"Trading a ticker just because a setup is there unfortunately won't yield profitable results.

The best way to eliminate this problem is to only trade the stocks in play and keep an eye on them throughout the day. Stocks in play I define as having a catalyst for that particular day as well as valid trigger levels on the daily chart. If you abide by these simple criterion you will find your frequency of trading will drastically decrease and your potential for large winners will increase exponentially. Hence, why you see me trade very infrequently but jump on the big movers when the opportunity presents itself.

One thing to note is I never rely on any single indicator to determine my entry on a trade. However, I will use them all in conjunction to determine the direction of the imminent move. What I'm saying here is that I simply would not rely solely on the 9 EMA cross above Vwap for an entry. I personally prefer the price action to be above both the 9 and 20 EMA as well as the Vwap before entering. - Mike from Warrior Trading

to be continued...

SUNE, CLOW

Did DD on SUNE, 90%+ down off it's high last year.. multiple negative news throughout the years, fundamentals are whack as they have a huge debt blah blah.. on the positive note 30% plus of the float are short so i'll be expecting a good squeeze in the open..

SUNE

Long overnight 1000 SUNE @ 1.71

Plan is to sell half at open, and sell the rest at 3$ if it tests it or sell all within 10mins of the open.

Sold 500 SUNE @ 2.29 08:00:08

Locked in half profits on a lower high in pre-market. I still had doubt's whether i should lock in profits or not but this is another assurance that cutting my risk in half for guaranteed profits is a much much better strategy. Take profits and move on.

Sold 300 SUNE @ 2.4234 09:41:40

Top was at 9:35-9:36 @ 2.77, i shoulda have at least seen the trend change MACD bearish crossover at 9:38 and stopped out at 2.5. I was still a little greedy and should've locked in 1$ per share profits but i wanted it to hit 3. Since i had already locked in half, I was comfortable with seeing if it will hold the spike a bit.

Sold 200 SUNE @ 2.37 09:43:58

Closed myself out completely when it broke below VWAP, sucks that it ended up being the low but I can work on my exits later, there's bigger mistakes to focus on atm.

If I had traded this ideally, I would've
1) Bought full size 2000 shares instead of 1000
2) Sell half at the same point when i did *** +1 did right ***
3) Closed out at 2.7 if was day trading, Closed out at 2.5 if i wanted to let it to test 3.

I missed the top by 30cents... I still had that "hope" mindset and because of it i missed out on locking in 1$/share profits. I AM A TRADER, I need to stop thinking about getting homerun plays and just bat singles.

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In comparison to how i traded 2 weeks ago:
I've significantly changed the way how i control my greed, Aiming less for big gains and instead aiming for consistent profits playing ideal setups instead. What coulda, shoulda, woulda been a $700-$800 gain ended up just over $600.

However, the big thing that killed my possible gain today was the fact that i only took half my normal size due to:

Impatience: Forced 2 trades AGAINST my rules during midday, instead of letting the play come to me, i tried to make the play happen instead.. 2-3hrs into it the market humbled/beat me down and was eventually scared out of my position. Due to my impatiience, i developed a fear and caused me not to go full size in the afternoon.

Fear: What coulda, shoulda, woulda been a $1400-$1600 gain on a full size position ended up just over $600. Funny, I've seen the top traders get scared out by being too early and you really have to experience it yourself to fully understand how it feels instead of just hearing/reading/learning it from someone else.. Being too early in a trade is SCARRRYYYY... I really would just either miss potential profits/miss the play completely than to be in early. This fear would easily be more compounded on short positions. I think fear here is a good thing though, the core problem here was the impatience, if i wasn't early on my trade, i wouldn't have been scared out in the first place and only went half my normal size.

On a side note: I called out on Wednesday that CLOW Breaking down past 0.35 cents would send it too test 0.30 and if it broke below that, it'd crash huge.

This pump was a gimme and i'd easily rate it a 4*. To help me with impatience, i will start using LX21's system of rating plays and i would only take 3*+.. I woul'd've rated my ETSY/ENOC/1st SUNE trades as 1*, SUNE o/n 3*, CLOW 4*. This would prevent me from going in useless/stupid plays.


I'm seriously thinking about just focusing on shorting. I've seen so many earnings winners fail so much and this overall market just SUCKS for being long. ClOW is now trading at 12cents from 35cents EASY EASY 66% Gain. My biggest problem right now is that I need that e-trade account open to short, and prolly just use TD Ameritrade for longs / Learn NASDAQ Shorting. This is going to be a huge change in my strategy and prolly be a good idea to take a week or two off from shorting to prepare myself shifting strategies from a long to a short seller.

ENOC, SUNE

Little rant first before i start off... As if i didn't learn enough from wednesday's stupidity.. I entered 2 trades out of boredom in the middle of the day.. Even though my rule is to buy 2-4pm and NEVER go in at lunchtime because it's hard to assess the trend due to the low volume, and you're not certain how the stock's going to react in the afternooon. I ended up getting scared out, one hit my mental stop loss and faked out/recovered. The other bounced off the vwap yet i got scared out anyways like a retard. I was right however in seeing that they were holding their gains, the main problem i felt was that there wasn't enough volume and i have no idea whether it was going to come back in the afternoon.

ENOC

Bought 500 ENOC @ 6.2 10:42:15

Bought it cause i'm a retard and i like to not stick by the rules. Fading volume, entering into midday, not sticking to the plan and buy at 2-4pm on good volume..

Sold 500 ENOC @ 6.052 12:26:41

Got stopped out and still sloppy on executing on my mental loss.


SUNE

Bought 1500 SUNE @ 1.67 11:13:37

Bought it cause i'm a double retard, if one retarded entry midday wasn't enough.. I'll beat it and make two stupid/impatient trades.

Sold 1500 SUNE @ 1.6001 11:46:51

Stupid entry, got scared out cause of low volume midday and unsure of how the afternoon is going to be.

Bought 1000 SUNE @ 1.71 15:47:32

IDEAL TRADE !! Finally My first ***** One this week.... Since i got scared out twice already earlier in teh day i only wen't half the size i normally would've on this trade.

PATIENCE

Rating the setups

• * Tradable
• ** Good
• *** Great
• **** BEST
• ***** BEST OF THE BEST

Why not trade all of the setups?

The lower rated setups woulda take up most of my time/energy/ and buying power. But would add very little to my bottomline. Over time, i began to realize that majority of my profits were coming in from the 4* and 5* trades even though they were a small minority of my trades. And sometimes by trading the 1* and 2* setups, i would completely miss a 4* or 5* setup. The distraction of having so many trades would cause inferior entries and exits.I realized the opportunity cost was so great that I could make more money by trading less. I wanna trade only the best setups.

“My track record had nothing to do with me being smarter than him, or better than him. It was because i was being very selective,You wanna win at trading? Then only bet when when you know you’re right. The lesson here is don’t trade just to keep busy. I have to constantly fight that urge and i struggle constantly with it like everyone else. It’s hard to stare at numbers all day long and not act. It’s hard to watch people post trades in chatrooms, all day long, and not act. But just because everyone else is buying waffles, means its a good idea.” -LX21

“Trading to keep busy costs you money, you need to be patient. Patient to wait for the best opportunities. Patient to wait for the best entries. And patient when your in a trade, to let it work. Think of it this way, as traders, Our job is to be patient. Most of our time should be spent watching and waiting.” -LX21

“ I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all i have to do is go over there and pick it up.” - Jim Rogers

ETSY

Didn't see any plays worth and was gonna open a paper trading account but instead just traded on my real account.. -_- went against my specific rules i laid out 2wks ago..

ETSY
I knew at the buy that this was gonna be a forced trade and away from the sykes strategies.. I was fine with the risk/loss but what i am not fine with was that i didn't even follow my own PERSONAL strategy that i had laid out. Pure speculation play off the charts with a lot of hope. I knew with conviction i shouldn't trade this but i went ahead anyways.

** Next time no ideal plays are in play, I will switch to the paper trading account option to test my strategies from there and instead of my real account.

ADDED 25 Feb 2016:
... I fell asleep before the market open and woke up at around 1pm market time.. felt like no plays were in the day. WATT was a good one cept i was asleep for it, nothing in the PM looked good and ETSY is failing throughout the day as a possible play. I was too antsy, felt like i needed to trade, was without internet for more than a week and was away from the market for 2wks. I was out of touch of the market yet i forced a trade, a trade i normally wouldn't have made. More mistakes yet again and again it was more emotional than the strategy itself.. I can finally see why some of sykes students had gradually shifted to other plays/strategies to keep them preoccupied. Impatience was my top downfall today and slightly less of a greediness.

Things to work on:

- IMPATIENCE- Today's #1 downfall; If i want to test out my own strategies, it will be using a paper trading account. Forced a trade i normally wouldn't have done since it was not an ideal play.

- HOPE/Greed- Even though i technically chased by a ton and almost bought the top, there was 3 opportunities where i could have sold for a small profit/breakeven. After I entered the trade, I found out that my personal strategy using RSI/MACD told me the trend was already broken after I entered, I still ignored my Personal strategy/checklist and "hoped" the stock would maintain the uptrend, After it failing twice, I still "hoped" it would uptrend when in fact it was clearly in a downtrend/support had broken..

- Preparation- I don't think you can ever prepare enough for the market day. However, i'm nowhere near where i want to be as far as preparedness prior to the opening bell. I still have yet to run my own scans and still using sykes/grittani's watchlist to look at stocks.

2/9-2/10 TRXC,THST Recap

My last posts were mostly ranting/summarizing. Ideally, i'd like to give a rundown of the trades on a trade by trade basis but it really depends on how much time i really want to give to the blog. I'll be keeping a diary of it off the blog to keep track of it but as far as the blog, i'll post it if i have time.

TRXC

2/9/2016 10:12:02 Bought 175 TRXC @ 3.85

2/9/2016 10:16:15 Bought 825 TRXC @ 3.8995

Bought into it, felt i was chasing and i almost got scared out of the trade when it started to downtrend. However, using RSI gave me the conviction that it was just correcting itself/finding support of a higher low. After i waited out the correction and the higher low was confirmed, The stock kept uptrending.

2/9/2016 13:13:27 Sold 400 TRXC @ 4.3301

Lower high, locked in some profits, in the future i would lock in at least half.

2/9/2016 17:43:46 Sold 600 TRXC @ 3.43

Was headed to bed when i thought i’d open twitter for the first time in months. Saw a dilution deal news come out and i frantically looked through my broker’s manuals on how to do extended hours trading. Was out for a small loss, I would do the trade over again though. If i held on o/n i’d be up but 1)Cut losses quickly here was good discipline.

2/10/2016 08:49:26 Bought 500 TRXC @ 4.01

Cool, bought pre-market ;) .. solid uptrend will sell at 4.4 resistance or 4.8 retest

2/10/2016 9:57:32 Sold 400 TRXC @ 4.3595

Instead of selling at 4.8 retest as planned, got greedy and held on hoping for a breakout. I ignored the Dilution news and obviously the trend failed and started to crack. I was out once my mental stop loss of 4.4 was hit.. Still profitable but greed caused me to deviate from the plan which is a big nono. Stick to the rules…

2/11/2016 9:32:09 Sold 100 TRXC @ 4.09

Due to fat fingers, I did not sell all my shares the previous day like i woulda have liked. Closed out my position at market open and called it a day.

THST

2/9/2016 15:51:36 Bought 500 THST @ 1.68

Bought the dip from 1.93, Felt good on my entry. Plan was to hold o/n and sell at open if no volume or into a morning spike.

2/10/2016 10:02:16 Sold 500 THST @ 1.48

Got greedy and ignored the fact that there was no volume/interest pre-market so i did not sell at market open as planned. Hoped the stock would gain attention and push higher but i got humbled down and it faded like i thought it would. ***HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY*** I missed some good exits to be slightly up/breakeven cuz i was too focused on TRXC/Hoping it THST would still break out. I got out once it hit my mental stop loss of 1.5

Algorithms and a HUGE boost to seeing the trends... It's basically feeling like free money now..

Watched Tim G's End of the month assessment of his personal trades.. Taught me how to setup parameters/template on how i can track/reassess my monthly progress.. VERY VERY Important lesson.

So I've taken Tim's Trading style and mixed it with Tim G's as well using RSI from Connor's style. I just started learning more studies/algorithms and it almost seems like free money now since i can sense the stocks trend and possible trend changes exponentially using the algorithms.

As of now, i'll be swing trading for a good bit since i'm under the PDT rule. But once i break out of the PDT, ill be mostly focusing on day trading as it'll be alot less risk on penny stocks. Once i learn Superman's/Martin Shkreli's trading style + learn how to read SEC filings and properly assess a company's value like a CPA.. I'll go heavy on swing trading i'll have more information to utilize to more accurately assess the risk of holding overnight..

WOW !!!!!!!

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    Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

The MACD-Histogram is an indicator of an indicator. In fact, MACD is also an indicator of an indicator. This means that the MACD-Histogram is four steps removed from the price of the underlying security. In other words, it is the fourth derivative of price.

• First derivative: 12-day EMA and 26-day EMA
• Second derivative: MACD (12-day EMA less the 26-day EMA)
• Third derivative: MACD signal line (9-day EMA of MACD)
• Fourth derivative: MACD-Histogram (MACD less MACD signal line)

The base for this indicator is the security's price. It takes four steps to get from the actual price to the MACD-Histogram. Talk about massaging the data. While not necessarily a bad thing, chartists should keep this in mind when analyzing the MACD-Histogram. It is an indicator of an indicator. Therefore, it is designed to anticipate signals in MACD, which in turn is designed to identify changes in the price momentum of the underlying security.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

A type of moving average that is similar to a simple moving average, except that more weight is given to the latest data. The exponential moving average is also known as "exponentially weighted moving average".

This type of moving average reacts faster to recent price changes than a simple moving average. The 12- and 26-day EMAs are the most popular short-term averages, and they are used to create indicators like the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the percentage price oscillator (PPO). In general, the 50- and 200-day EMAs are used as signals of long-term trends.

The EMA for a series Y may be calculated recursively:

for

Where:

• The coefficient α represents the degree of weighting decrease, a constant smoothing factor between 0 and 1. A higher α discounts older observations faster.
• Yt is the value at a time period t.
• St is the value of the EMA at any time period t.

S1 is undefined. S1 may be initialized in a number of different ways, most commonly by setting S1 to Y1, though other techniques exist, such as setting S1 to an average of the first 4 or 5 observations. The importance of the S1 initialisations effect on the resultant moving average depends on α; smaller α values make the choice of S1 relatively more important than larger α values, since a higher α discounts older observations faster.

Volume-Weighted-Average (VWAP)

The VWAP calculation is performed by the charting software and displays an overlay on the chart representing the calculations. This display takes the form of a line, similar to other moving averages. How that line is calculated is as follows:

Choose your time frame (tick chart, 1 min, 5 min, etc.)

• Calculate the typical price for the first period (and all periods in the day following). Typical price is attained by taking adding the high, low and close, and dividing by three: (H+L+C)/3
• Multiply this typical price by the volume for that period. This will give us a value called TP*V.
• Keep a running total of the TP*V values, called cumulative TPV. This is attained by continually adding the most recent TPV to the prior values (except for the first period, since there will be no prior value). This figure should always be getting larger as the day progresses.
• Keep a running total of cumulative volume. Do this by continually adding the most recent volume to the prior volume. This number should only get larger as the day progresses.
• Calculate VWAP with your information: cumulative TPV/cumulative volume. This will provide a volume weighted average price for each period and will provide the data to create the flowing line which overlays the price data on the chart.

where:

is Volume Weighted Average Price;

is price of trade ;

is quantity of trade ;

is each individual trade that takes place over the defined period of time, excluding cross trades and basket cross trades.

A trading benchmark used especially in pension plans. VWAP is calculated by adding up the dollars traded for every transaction (price multiplied by number of shares traded) and then dividing by the total shares traded for the day.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

For each trading period an upward change U or downward change D is calculated. Up periods are characterized by the close being higher than the previous close:

Conversely, a down period is characterized by the close being lower than the previous period's close (note that D is nonetheless a positive number),

If the last close is the same as the previous, both U and D are zero. The average U and D are calculated using an n-period smoothed or modified moving average (SMMA or MMA) which is a exponentially smoothed Moving Average with α = 1/period. Some commercial packages, like AIQ, use a standard exponential moving average (EMA) as the average instead of Wilder's SMMA.

Wilder originally formulated the calculation of the moving average as: newval = (prevval * (period - 1) + newdata) / period. This if fully equivalent to the aforementioned exponential smoothing. New data is simply divided by period which is equal to the alpha calculated value of 1/period. Previous average values are modified by (period -1)/period which in effect is period/period - 1/period and finally 1 - 1/period which is 1 - alpha.

The ratio of these averages is the relative strength or relative strength factor:

If the average of D values is zero, then according to the equation, the RS value will approach infinity, so that the resulting RSI, as computed below, will approach 100.

The relative strength factor is then converted to a relative strength index between 0 and 100:[1]

The smoothed moving averages should be appropriately initialized with a simple moving average using the first n values in the price series.

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Wrote down my strategy here but removed it since I wanna keep it to myself for now...